Lawfare Daily: The Limits of Cyber Subversion, with Lennart Maschmeyer
Jul 17, 2024
auto_awesome
Lennart Maschmeyer discusses subversion as a tool of power, the impact of cyber capabilities, challenges in evaluating cyber subversion success, and the limitations of using it for regime change. The conversation highlights the need for a balanced approach in understanding cyber capabilities.
Subversion bridges warfare and diplomacy, shaping conflicts subtly through covert manipulation of social systems.
Cyber operations, despite high expectations, often fall short in effectively influencing adversaries in modern conflict scenarios.
Deep dives
Exploration of the Rationale for Writing the Book
The book explores the expectation of a revolution in conflict due to the information revolution, leading to the exploration of cyber capabilities in conflict. The initial intent was to study this revolution but evolved to focus on subversion, revealing that the analogy to traditional warfare doesn't fully apply to cyber operations.
Comparison of Traditional Power Instruments
In traditional conflict, warfare using force or diplomacy was dominant. Subversion emerges as a covert strategy between warfare and diplomacy, aiming to influence others without overt force. Its historical significance, particularly during the Cold War, saw both the US and the Soviet Union employing subversion to manipulate and overthrow governments.
Mechanisms of Subversion and Cyber Operations
Subversion involves infiltrating and manipulating social systems through spies and covert operations to achieve objectives subtly. Comparatively, cyber operations entail exploiting vulnerabilities in computer systems akin to infiltrating traditional systems. The core mechanics of infiltrating systems or social groups underpin both subversion and cyber operations.
Assessment of Cyber Conflict Impact
Despite expectations of a revolutionary impact, the podcast discussed how cyber operations, especially in the context of Russia's actions in Ukraine, have not always achieved intended goals of subverting or influencing adversaries effectively. The limitations and challenges reveal a nuanced and less hyped perspective on the true impact of cyber capabilities in modern conflict scenarios.
Eugenia Lostri, Lawfare's Fellow in Technology Policy and Law, talks with with Lennart Maschmeyer, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, about his new book, “Subversion: From Covert Operations to Cyber Conflict.” The book explores how subversion works and what its strategic value is, and how technological change alters its reach and quality. They talked about the promise of subversion as an instrument of power, the tradeoffs required for covert operations, and how current doctrine should consider cyber capabilities.