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CIO Weekly Investment Outlook

Widening: spreads, fiscal deficits and BRICS

Oct 28, 2024
Stefanie Holtze-Jen, Chief Investment Officer in APAC at Deutsche Bank, shares insights on widening U.S. rate spreads and the effects of China’s stimulus. She discusses how U.S. long-term rates may remain high due to continued deficit spending and central bank strategies. The conversation highlights Japan’s elections and the Bank of Japan’s inflation goals. Stefanie also explores the recent BRICS meeting, revealing that 13 emerging markets are joining the alliance, aiming to enhance trade and energy sustainability.
14:21

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Quick takeaways

  • U.S. long-term Treasury rates are likely to remain high due to ongoing deficit spending expectations and Fed monetary policies.
  • The expansion of the BRICS alliance with new emerging markets emphasizes strategic partnerships for energy transitions and commodity supply chains.

Deep dives

U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook

Recent movements in U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to positioning related to the upcoming election, with the expectation that deficit spending will continue regardless of the outcome. With an increasing probability of a Trump victory, higher government bond issuance is anticipated to finance ongoing structural issues, leading to elevated rates. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates indicates a willingness to continue cutting them, as long as inflation remains manageable, which further supports higher long-term yields. A tactical opportunity may arise in the narrowing spread between two and ten-year Treasuries, which is expected to widen as election dynamics evolve.

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