Managing Crises between the U.S. and China: A Conversation with Xin Qiang and Dennis Wilder
Jun 21, 2023
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Xin Qiang and Dennis Wilder discuss how the U.S. and China can manage potential crises from military activities. They emphasize tensions are at a new high and the need for better communication and understanding. They explore the impact of past incidents, factors influencing responses, and differences in crisis management. They recommend reducing military activities and promoting cooperation to resolve future crises.
Diplomatic leadership and quiet negotiations are crucial for managing potential crises between the U.S. and China.
Establishing open communication channels and reducing military activities near sensitive areas can help prevent escalation and mishaps.
Deep dives
The EP-3 incident of 2001 and the US response
In April 2001, an incident occurred when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US EP-3 surveillance plane near Highland Island. President Bush chose diplomacy as the primary approach to resolve the crisis, prioritizing quiet negotiations led by Secretary of State Colin Powell. Both sides displayed positive signals, allowing for the safe return of the American crew within 11 days. The crisis highlighted the importance of diplomatic leadership and the need to keep military action in the background.
Challenges in dealing with a similar crisis today
Compared to the EP-3 incident, the current environment between the US and China presents greater challenges. Distrust has intensified, and public opinion on both sides has turned more negative. If a similar crisis were to occur today, there would be an immediate desire to assign blame and demand apologies, potentially leading to escalation. Diplomatic efforts may be undermined by domestic pressures, media sensationalism, and increased social media presence. The lack of trust and consensus among US leaders could complicate crisis management and prevent timely resolution.
Potential dangerous scenarios and implications
With the increasing military activities near Taiwan, a potential crisis could arise from a collision during a large-scale Chinese military exercise, especially if the US sends aircraft or ships to the area. Such an incident would have severe political and strategic implications. Considering the high levels of mutual suspicion, both China and the US could be galvanized to take tough measures, escalating the crisis. Militaries on both sides may exert influence, increasing the risk of a military conflict. The situation could quickly evolve into an international crisis involving allied nations.
Recommendations for crisis management
To prevent escalation and manage potential crises resulting from military activities, it is crucial to establish and maintain open communication channels at all levels of both governments. Building personal relationships and trust between officials would facilitate efficient crisis resolution. Additionally, reducing military activities near sensitive areas, such as the Taiwan Strait, could lower the chances of a mishap. Consensus needs to be reached on the importance of avoiding another crisis, and leaders should strive for message discipline to ensure consistent and clear communication.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Professor Xin Qiang and Professor Dennis Wilder to discuss how the U.S. and China could manage potential crises from elevated military activities. Both speakers emphasize that tensions between the U.S. and China are at a new high due to increased levels of strategic competition and neither side is well-prepared to handle a military collision or accident. Professor Wilder explains quiet diplomacy is critical for managing crises and cultural differences between the U.S. and China should always be considered in order to prevent miscommunication. Professor Xin notes that U.S. military activity to challenge normal Chinese military exercises are viewed differently than U.S. activities to challenge PRC activities aimed at countering “sensitive” U.S. or Taiwan activities. The latter would be viewed as much more hostile by the Chinese side. On an ending note, they both agree that the establishment of communication channels are essential to de-escalate potential future crises.
Xin Qiang is the Inaugural Director of the Center for Taiwan Studies and Deputy Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. He is currently a visiting fellow at Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School and conducting research on how to manage turbulent Taiwan issue amid intensifying US-China Strategic Competition.
Dennis Wilder is a Professor and Senior Fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director. Prior to this, he served as the Deputy Assistant Director for East Asia and the Pacific for the Central Intelligence Agency from 2015 to 2016. He also was the Director for China as well as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asian Affairs at the National Security Council.
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