Large language models like GPT-3, 3.5, and 4 show promising results in capturing pairwise and full-graph causal relationships, but have limitations in answering specific causal reasoning questions.
Prompt engineering is crucial for accurate results with large language models, highlighting the need for better ways to evaluate models and the potential for reinforcement learning approaches to enhance causal reasoning.
Deep dives
Large Language Models and Causal Reasoning
The podcast episode explores the topic of large language models and their potential for causal reasoning. The guest, Robert Ness, discusses a recent paper on causal reasoning and large language models, highlighting the implications and challenges in this field. The models were tested on benchmarks for pairwise causal discovery and full-graph causal discovery, showing promising results. However, they also had limitations and vulnerabilities to prompt manipulation. The episode raises questions about the models' ability to generalize, use domain knowledge, and understand context. It also suggests the potential of reinforcement learning to train models on specific causal tasks. Robert mentions interesting work by Atticus Geiger on interleaved intervention training. Finally, Robert shares his reading recommendation on a book about parenting and causal inference by Emily Oster.
Model Performance and Limitations
The podcast delves into the performance and limitations of large language models in causal reasoning. The models performed well on benchmarks for pairwise and full-graph causal discovery, showcasing their ability to capture causal relationships. However, they exhibited brittleness in reasoning and were sensitive to prompts. The episode emphasizes the importance of prompt engineering to ensure accurate results. It also discusses the need to evaluate models on tasks that require reasoning about actual causality and human-like causal judgments. The guest mentions an interesting method called interleaved intervention training, which aligns models with causal models specific to certain tasks.
The Role of Large Language Models in Causal Analysis
The podcast episode explores the potential role of large language models in causal analysis. It highlights the models' ability to bridge the gap between domain knowledge and statistical analysis by generating causal DAGs and answering causal queries. The models showed promising results in capturing pairwise causal relationships and constructing causal graphs. However, there were limitations in certain tasks, such as recognizing contextual factors and avoiding prompt manipulation. The episode discusses the need for better ways to evaluate models and the potential for RLHF approaches to enhance causal reasoning. It also mentions the usefulness of tools like Guidance, which offer control and constraint over large language models.
Interesting Research and Reading Recommendations
The podcast episode also presents interesting research and reading recommendations. One notable research is the work of Atticus Geiger on interleaved intervention training, which aims to align large language models with oracle causal models. This approach shows promise in training models for specific causal tasks. In terms of reading recommendations, the guest suggests a book by Emily Oster on parenting and causal inference, which applies data-driven analysis to parenting decisions. Additionally, the episode mentions the usefulness of the Guidance repository, a tool for working with large language models, providing control and customization options.
Today we’re joined by Robert Osazuwa Ness, a senior researcher at Microsoft Research, Professor at Northeastern University, and Founder of Altdeep.ai. In our conversation with Robert, we explore whether large language models, specifically GPT-3, 3.5, and 4, are good at causal reasoning. We discuss the benchmarks used to evaluate these models and the limitations they have in answering specific causal reasoning questions, while Robert highlights the need for access to weights, training data, and architecture to correctly answer these questions. The episode discusses the challenge of generalization in causal relationships and the importance of incorporating inductive biases, explores the model's ability to generalize beyond the provided benchmarks, and the importance of considering causal factors in decision-making processes.
The complete show notes for this episode can be found at twimlai.com/go/638.
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