Pricing the Future (with Kalshi CEO)

23 snips

Nov 19, 2025

Tarek Mansour, Co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, dives into the world of prediction markets, explaining how they can enhance societal insight rather than serve as gambling platforms. He shares how Kalshi's regulatory-first approach has been crucial for success and why embracing crypto and stablecoins is key for global expansion. Tarek discusses lessons from FTX about the importance of compliance and building consumer trust. He also touches on productivity tips and amusingly rejects kombucha in the office—making for a lively and informative conversation!

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INSIGHT

Prediction Markets Price The Future

Prediction markets create social value by improving forecasts rather than merely enabling bets.
Tarek Mansour argues this pricing-of-the-future makes prediction markets distinct from gambling.

ADVICE

Adopt Crypto As An Enabling Layer

Treat crypto like an enabling technology to improve payments, speed, and openness.
Use blockchain rails selectively to move money cheaper and let developers build on top.

ADVICE

Use Stablecoins For Global Launches

Use stablecoins to launch internationally fast and avoid building many local payment integrations.
Start with crypto rails to reach many countries immediately, then optimize local on-ramps where demand is highest.

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with @mansourtarek_ @rhackett

In this episode of web3 with a16z crypto, host Robert Hackett talks with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour about how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.

Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.

Topics include:

How prediction markets make society "smarter"
The role of regulation in fintech innovation
Why Kalshi started with crypto payments
Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance
Building consumer trust and network effects
Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha

This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now?

01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable

01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy

03:19 – Going global with stablecoins

05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered

7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models

08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events

10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat

12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation

15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election

16:48 – How policy in DC really works

17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated

18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more

21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”)

22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on

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