Why prediction markets are not gambling

with @mansourtarek_ @rhackett

In this episode of web3 with a16z crypto, host Robert Hackett talks with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour about how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.

Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.

Topics include:

• How prediction markets make society "smarter"
• The role of regulation in fintech innovation
• Why Kalshi started with crypto payments
• Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance
• Building consumer trust and network effects
• Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha

This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now?

01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable

01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy

03:19 – Going global with stablecoins

05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered

7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models

08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events

10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat

12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 

15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election

16:48 – How policy in DC really works

17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated

18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more

21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”)

22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on

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