TPI Replay: What Climate Change Means for the Horn of Africa, With Michelle Gavin
Nov 28, 2023
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Michelle Gavin, Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council, discusses the impact of climate change in the Horn of Africa, including challenges faced by the region, urbanization and economic growth, deforestation in the Amazon, and the importance of U.S. ambassadors in international diplomacy.
The impact of climate change in the Horn of Africa includes historic droughts, intense storms and flooding, leading to food insecurity, displacement, and conflicts over scarce resources.
Efforts to address climate change in the Horn of Africa should focus on conflict resolution, diplomatic engagement, and integrating climate priorities into foreign assistance efforts.
Deep dives
Climate change impacts on the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa, comprised of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan, and South Sudan, is experiencing the impact of climate change. The region has seen historic droughts, causing acute food insecurity for millions of people. Intense storms and flooding have also displaced populations. These changes in weather patterns have significant consequences for agriculture, which is a vital economic sector in the region. Conflicts over scarce resources, such as water and land, are exacerbated by climate change, leading to tensions between pastoral and agricultural communities. Additionally, the Nile waters present a potential source of dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt. The United States has a vested interest in addressing the challenges in the Horn of Africa, as a chaotic region could lead to refugee flows, provide opportunities for malign actors, and threaten global security.
Capacity and conflicts hinder resilience efforts
While there are plans and expertise to address the impacts of climate change, the capacity and resources to implement these plans are limited in the Horn of Africa. The region's governments already face multiple challenges, including poverty, internal conflicts, and infrastructure deficiencies. The existing conflicts in the region further hinder efforts to build resilience and adapt to climate change. The intensification of conflicts, both inter-state and intra-state, makes it difficult to make meaningful progress. To effectively address the climate crisis in the Horn of Africa, efforts should be focused on conflict resolution, diplomatic engagement, and integrating climate priorities into foreign assistance efforts.
The role of the United States and the need for ambassadors
The United States has a responsibility to engage with the challenges in the Horn of Africa, considering its historical contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and the potential impact on global stability. Action is essential to prevent state collapse and the resulting massive refugee flows, safeguard freedom of navigation through the Red Sea, and counter the influence of other foreign actors. Diplomatic engagement and effective representation through ambassadors on the ground play a crucial role in building relationships, establishing trust, and advancing U.S. interests. It is important for the U.S. government to prioritize the nomination and confirmation of ambassadors to effectively address the region's challenges.
Michelle Gavin, the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the impact of climate change in the Horn of Africa. This series is made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.