The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Sep 28, 2024
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Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, shares insights on the future of warfare, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to adapt to rapid technological changes. He discusses the looming threats from China, particularly regarding Taiwan, and the implications of Russia's Ukraine invasion. Stavridis introduces the concept of a 'new triad' in warfare—unmanned systems, AI, and cyber warfare—which is reshaping military dynamics globally. He warns that while traditional militaries may reduce costs, these advancements risk empowering terrorist groups.
The U.S. must adapt its national security strategies to address the rapidly evolving landscape of warfare shaped by technology and asymmetrical threats.
Geopolitical tensions with China, particularly regarding Taiwan, underscore the need for a balancing approach between confrontation and cooperation in U.S. foreign policy.
Deep dives
Domestic Security Threats
The podcast highlights the significant domestic security threats currently faced by the United States, primarily focusing on the risk of domestic terrorism, threat actors crossing the southern border, and increasing cyber threats. Notably, the assassination attempt on a former president is cited as an act of domestic terrorism, illustrating the extreme political violence that has escalated in recent years. Additionally, the porousness of the southern border is discussed as a concern, with fears that malign actors may be infiltrating from various regions globally. Cyber threats are underscored as distinct and complex, particularly with adversarial capabilities from China and Russia, indicating a multi-faceted national security landscape that requires vigilant attention and action.
International Geopolitical Factors
The podcast elaborates on the pressing international challenges shaping U.S. foreign policy, particularly the geopolitical tensions involving China and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. There is caution surrounding China, especially regarding Taiwan, where potential military actions are complicated by economic implications for President Xi Jinping's government. The dialogue emphasizes that Xi may be deterred from aggressive actions due to his desire to stabilize China’s economy, and the military readiness of Taiwan poses an unknown risk for any potential confrontation. The conversation also highlights the need for a coherent U.S. strategy towards China, which may involve finding avenues for cooperation alongside necessary confrontations.
Future of Warfare and Technology
The discussion explores how technology is transforming warfare and national security paradigms, particularly in light of recent conflicts like the war in Ukraine. The emergence of a new triad of warfare is identified, encompassing unmanned systems, cyber capabilities, and specialized forces. This indicates a shift towards less conventional military engagements and a preference for advanced technological solutions over traditional large-scale troop deployments. The podcast suggests this transition not only reflects current military needs but also shapes a future where asymmetric threats and small group terrorism become increasingly prominent aspects of international security.
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead to armies around the world will shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.