Global Commodities: Gold & Silver—Citius, Altius, Fortius
Jul 26, 2024
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The discussion centers on the bullish outlook for gold and silver, driven by various economic factors. With the Fed's potential rate cuts and the volatile election landscape, these metals remain appealing. Physical demand from China may have cooled, but concerns about US fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks keep interest alive. Growth in gold and silver ETF holdings hints at a shift in investor sentiment, with gold outperforming despite challenges for silver, which may find recovery through industrial demand.
The upcoming Fed cutting cycle and historical trends suggest a strong potential for gold and silver price rallies post-election.
Despite a decrease in physical demand from China, supportive macroeconomic factors are expected to bolster gold and silver markets through 2025.
Deep dives
Bullish Outlook for Precious Metals
The forecast for both gold and silver remains positive, driven by key economic indicators suggesting a Fed cutting cycle is on the horizon. Historical performance indicates that precious metals tend to thrive in periods following initial Fed cuts, with the BECOM precious metals index reflecting consistent positive returns in similar contexts. With risks of sharper labor market declines prompting quicker cuts, gold and silver could experience significant price rallies akin to those seen after previous recessions in 2007 and 2019. Additionally, ongoing issues such as US fiscal deficits and central bank diversification strategies, compounded by potential shifts in policy post the upcoming election, are expected to create a supportive environment for these metals through 2025.
Shifting Demand Dynamics for Gold and Silver
Recent trends have shown a decrease in physical gold demand from China, affecting global price dynamics, while financial inflows and ETF demand are beginning to rise. Despite a notable decline in Chinese imports, which fell over 60% month-over-month in June, the overall demand landscape is still characterized by responsiveness to price fluctuations, offering a buffer against sharp declines. On the silver front, while it currently lags behind gold due to broader industrial selling pressures, ongoing solar demand suggests a persistent market deficit that could drive future growth. The expectation is that as industrial metals stabilize, both gold and silver are poised for investor-driven rebounds, supported by strengthening macroeconomic factors.
On the cusp of a Fed cutting cycle with US labor markets softening and the US election news cycle turning increasingly volatile in the run up to November, we maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold and silver. Even if the coming Fed cutting cycle comes with twists and turns given potential post-election US policy changes, we still think gold sits in a prime position. While physical demand in China has cooled for now, structurally bullish drivers including US fiscal deficit concerns, central bank reserve diversification amid de-dollarization, inflation hedging, and simmering geopolitical risk all look set to remain supportive factors for gold and silver.
Speakers:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research