Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Guess Who's Back (Ep. 119)

Jan 22, 2025

Markets are buzzing with surprising strength, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks. Inflation metrics are improving, influenced by lagging indicators like housing costs. The potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar could reshape U.S. manufacturing and inflation expectations. Labor market trends show resilience, especially in construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization. Amidst this, policy uncertainties and community support stories weave through the discussion, highlighting the complex web of current economic dynamics.

38:21

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Quick takeaways

Recent market strength, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, indicates a positive trend defying widespread skepticism about economic conditions.

Evolving inflation metrics show stabilization, with key factors like shelter costs impacting perceptions of future monetary policy and economic resilience.

Deep dives

Market Optimism Amidst Skepticism

Despite pervasive skepticism among market analysts, recent data suggests an upward trend in market breadth. Last week marked a significant week in the stock market, with more than 55% of stocks on the NYSE advancing each day, indicating a bullish sentiment previously dismissed by detractors. Notably, 68% of S&P 500 stocks experienced gains for five consecutive days, a streak tied for the longest since 1928, indicating robust market momentum. Mid-cap stocks are demonstrating particularly strong performance, suggesting a resurgence in broader market participation, contrary to assumptions of market weakness.

Intro

2min

Market Dynamics and Fan Rivalries

9min

Analyzing Labor Market Trends and Economic Indicators

3min

Construction Job Market Insights

6min

Navigating Grief and Community Support

3min

Inflation Trends and Economic Indicators

16min

The investing world is buzzing as markets rally, inflation softens, and a familiar political figure makes headlines.

How do these factors shape the current economic picture? What are the implications for portfolios and policies in the months ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the surprising strength of markets, the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar, and the outlook for inflation in 2025. They highlight key data and trends that show resilience and opportunities in the economy despite widespread skepticism.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

The recent broad market strength, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, and the implications of improved market breadth
Why inflation metrics, especially core CPI, show improvement and the role of lagging indicators like shelter costs and motor vehicle insurance
The influence of tariffs and a strengthening dollar on U.S. manufacturers, earnings, and inflation expectations
Resilience in the labor market, including trends in part-time workers and construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization
Policy uncertainties, including President Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico and their possible effects on global trade and markets
And more!

Resources:

Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.
Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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Connect with Ryan Detrick:

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

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