Bret Stephens: The Return of Great Power Competition
Jan 17, 2023
57:50
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Bret Stephens, a foreign affairs columnist at the New York Times, discusses major takeaways from the war in Ukraine and the US's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He offers predictions about the future of warfare and explains what the US will have to do to remain the preeminent global power. They also touch on cancel culture, decadence, and environmentalism.
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Quick takeaways
The weakness of the Russian army and the strength of Ukrainian nationalism were surprising revelations during the Ukraine war.
The war in Ukraine highlighted the declining relevance of tanks in modern warfare, shifting discussions around military planning and spending towards more agile forms of warfare.
The foreign policy establishment in the United States needs to find a balanced approach that addresses both domestic needs and global commitments to avoid extreme swings in policy approaches.
Deep dives
Non-obvious takeaways of the Ukraine war
The weakness of the Russian army and state, as well as the strength of Ukrainian nationalism, were surprising revelations during the Ukraine war. The Russian military proved to be weaker than anticipated, highlighting the long-standing issue of corruption within the Russian economy and government. Additionally, the Russian seizure of Crimea and parts of Donbass in 2014 actually strengthened Ukrainian nationalism, contrary to expectations. This consolidation of Ukrainian nationalism was unexpected, especially considering the East-West divide that existed prior to the invasion. The war also highlighted the declining relevance of tanks in modern warfare, with advanced missiles rendering tanks vulnerable. The war in Ukraine has been seen as marking the end of the era of tanks. As a result, discussions around military planning and spending may shift towards more agile and distributed forms of warfare.
Logistics as a key to winning wars
One of the main takeaways from the war in Ukraine is the crucial role of logistics in determining victory. The ability to efficiently transport and allocate resources, including weaponry, machinery, and supplies, is paramount in warfare. NATO's neglect of logistics in recent years has been a notable shortcoming, which may lead to a reevaluation and renewed emphasis on logistics in military planning and spending. Despite the challenges of increasing military spending, it is believed that improved logistics capabilities are essential for achieving success in modern conflicts.
The importance of a coherent foreign policy strategy
The foreign policy establishment in the United States has faced criticism for its lack of a clear and cohesive strategy over the past few decades. While periods of coherence have been observed in the past, such as during the Cold War, recent administrations have shown shifts in policy approaches. There have been oscillations between isolationism and over-commitment, and varying levels of emphasis on international intervention and domestic priorities. The challenge lies in finding a middle road that avoids these extreme swings and maintains a balanced approach to foreign policy that addresses both domestic needs and global commitments.
The impact of the Afghanistan war and education
The Afghanistan war, which spanned two decades and resulted in significant casualties and financial expenditure, has highlighted the need for reflection and examination of the outcomes and lessons learned. While some may view the war as a loss, others argue that the United States simply "seeded the field" by withdrawing its minimal presence, leading to negative consequences for the Afghan people and regional stability. The war's legacy also raises questions about the quality and effectiveness of education, specifically in relation to critical thinking, literacy, and numeracy skills. Concerns have been voiced regarding declining standards in education, including literacy and numeracy levels, which could have long-term implications for future generations.
Environmental activism and its challenges
There are inherent challenges within the environmentalist movement that require introspection and reassessment. The movement has faced criticism in the past for inaccurate predictions, such as overpopulation theories and opposition to nuclear energy. The communication of climate change as an existential threat has also been a contentious issue, with some arguing that overstating its severity may undermine the credibility of the movement and create a sense of fatigue or desensitization among the public. The focus on small-scale initiatives, like paper straw usage, rather than broader systemic changes, has also led to skepticism and resistance. Environmentalists should strive for evidence-based approaches, consider trade-offs, and foster productive dialogue to achieve meaningful progress in addressing environmental challenges.
Bret Stephens is a foreign affairs columnist at the New York Times and author of America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder.
Auren and Bret discuss major takeaways from the war in Ukraine, and the US's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bret offers predictions about the future of warfare and weaponry, and explains what the US will have to do to remain the preeminent global power through the next decade. They also discuss cancel culture, decadence, and environmentalism.
World of DaaS is brought to you by SafeGraph. For more episodes, visit safegraph.com/podcasts.
You can find Auren Hoffman on Twitter at @auren and Bret Stephens at the New York Times Opinion section. nytimes.com/column/bret-stephens
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