UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Further adjustment
10 snips
Nov 25, 2025 AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Signals Pushed Markets Toward A December Cut
- Fed communication shifted quickly and markets re-priced a December cut from ~35% to ~80% probability.
- Several influential Fed officials signaled support, suggesting coordinated messaging ahead of the blackout period.
Data Signal A Soft Patch, Not Recession
- Early post-shutdown government data are mixed but point to a soft labor market and resilient overall growth.
- High-frequency indicators and revised GDP tracking suggest Q3 was stronger than initially thought, implying a likely growth pickup into 2026.
Volatility Looks Like Noise, Not A Regime Change
- Recent volatility largely reflects technicals, positioning and sentiment rather than a fundamental shift.
- Questions about AI CapEx monetization add uncertainty, but fundamentals (Fed and economy) remain the dominant drivers.