The Circuit Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!
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Jan 27, 2025 Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg dive into the intriguing world of DeepSeek's AI model and its ripple effects on market trends. They touch on the complexities of AI valuations and the cautious optimism surrounding future investments in AI infrastructure. The duo debates the potential of ambient agents and the evolving role of AI in daily life, while pondering issues like job displacement. They also analyze recent investments in AI and the surprising stock performances of major tech firms amidst economic uncertainty, keeping the conversation both insightful and engaging.
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DeepSeek Is Evolution, Not Revolution
- DeepSeek advanced transformer techniques and test-time scaling but did not 'upend the world'.
- Jay Goldberg says their results are a strong step forward, not revolutionary.
Reported Training Costs Likely Understate Reality
- Reported low training costs are likely incomplete and omit many supporting expenses.
- Jay Goldberg compares DeepSeek's accounting to pro forma adjustments that understate real costs.
Incentives Skew Public GPU Claims
- Chinese firms have incentives to underreport GPU counts while Western firms may exaggerate them.
- Ben Bajarin and Jay note geopolitical incentives distort public statements about hardware.