The Rachman Review
Is the balance tilting towards Russia in Ukraine?
Nov 16, 2023
Discussion on the ongoing war in Ukraine, especially the failed counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army and intensified fighting near Avdivka. Analysis of Ukraine's determination and Russia's resilience. Examining the need for investment in military capacity to tilt the balance in Ukraine. Analyzing Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea naval front and the challenges ahead. Exploring the weariness and determination of Ukrainians towards the conflict. Discussion on tensions and dependencies between Kiev and Western capitals.
32:13
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Quick takeaways
- The war in Ukraine is at a stalemate, but Russia's intact training bases and increasing formations pose a significant threat for Ukraine's future.
- Ukraine faces challenges in resources, manpower, and equipment, requiring a shift towards deliberate training processes and investment in the industrial base.
Deep dives
Stalemate on the battlefield
The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate, contrary to General Zaluzhny's statement. However, a stalemate suggests a static situation that does not account for the rates of attrition on both sides. The Russians feel they can sustain their loss rate, even with the significant number of casualties they have suffered. Ukraine has struggled to train and form units capable of defensive operations, and their limited capacity for training and outdated equipment puts them at a disadvantage. Russia, on the other hand, has intact training bases and has been adding to their formations. They have moved onto a war footing, receiving significant amounts of equipment, while the availability of critical materials in Europe is constrained.
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