Discussion on the ongoing war in Ukraine, especially the failed counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army and intensified fighting near Avdivka. Analysis of Ukraine's determination and Russia's resilience. Examining the need for investment in military capacity to tilt the balance in Ukraine. Analyzing Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea naval front and the challenges ahead. Exploring the weariness and determination of Ukrainians towards the conflict. Discussion on tensions and dependencies between Kiev and Western capitals.
The war in Ukraine is at a stalemate, but Russia's intact training bases and increasing formations pose a significant threat for Ukraine's future.
Ukraine faces challenges in resources, manpower, and equipment, requiring a shift towards deliberate training processes and investment in the industrial base.
Deep dives
Stalemate on the battlefield
The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate, contrary to General Zaluzhny's statement. However, a stalemate suggests a static situation that does not account for the rates of attrition on both sides. The Russians feel they can sustain their loss rate, even with the significant number of casualties they have suffered. Ukraine has struggled to train and form units capable of defensive operations, and their limited capacity for training and outdated equipment puts them at a disadvantage. Russia, on the other hand, has intact training bases and has been adding to their formations. They have moved onto a war footing, receiving significant amounts of equipment, while the availability of critical materials in Europe is constrained.
Challenges for Ukraine
Ukraine is facing challenges in terms of resources and manpower. They have numerous troops, but they are stretched thin along the entire front, with limited capacity to train more due to ongoing attacks on their training areas. The lack of trained officers at field grade level hinders their ability to command larger operations. Ukraine also faces equipment shortages, particularly when it comes to artillery shells and barrels. Many of their artillery systems are obsolete, with limited spare parts available. Tanks and other equipment provided by the West also face similar challenges. The morale of Ukrainian forces has been affected by the failure of the much-anticipated counter-offensive.
Long-term planning and Russian ambitions
The situation in Ukraine requires a shift from rapid mobilization to deliberate training processes. Ukrainian troops need to be properly prepared for offensive operations, and investment is needed to strengthen the industrial base. Russia, on the other hand, is increasing its military industrial capacity and receiving support from other countries. The potential for substantial gains by Russia in the future is a real danger. While Russia has made blunders and taken heavy losses, they believe they can sustain their losses and are forming new units. A long-term plan is crucial to carry Ukraine through 2024 and into 2025, considering the decline in available munitions and maintaining a rate of attrition against Russian forces.
Western support and challenges
Maintaining Western support is crucial for Ukraine, but tensions exist due to dependency and a lack of clear understanding of the situation on the ground. Western partners want a plan from Ukraine, but it is difficult for Ukraine to formulate one without assured equipment. There is a need for longer-term planning that synchronizes efforts, including investments in the industrial base. However, outside of defense ministries, there is reluctance and a lack of urgency in making necessary changes and increasing military production. Europe lacks capacity in defense industries, and coordination among European countries is crucial to fulfill orders and meet Ukraine's needs. The focus should not retreat into wishful thinking or complacency but instead focus on proactive measures to support Ukraine.
Some have described Russia’s war against Ukraine as being at a stalemate. But one side could quickly gain the upper hand. Gideon discusses the strengths and weaknesses of both sides with Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London. Clips: Deutche Welle; NBC News