Steve Van Metre, an expert on economic challenges facing US consumers, discusses the alarming decline in American savings, which are now at just 3.4%. He highlights how stagnant incomes and rising unemployment are pushing consumers to rely heavily on credit, leading to increasing delinquencies. The conversation delves into the disconnect between manufacturing output and consumer demand, raising concerns about future economic prospects. Van Metre paints a stark picture of financial anxiety and the potential risks of a looming recession.
The savings rate in the U.S. has fallen to 3.4 percent, indicating that many Americans are running out of savings and struggling to keep up with rising costs. This decline in the savings rate is attributed to the depletion of government stimulus funds and stagnant income growth, which has pressured consumer spending. As nominal incomes have not kept pace with inflation, consumers are compelled to cut back on spending significantly, leading to a developing goods recession. The economic implications of this trend suggest that reduced consumer spending will adversely affect various sectors, including both goods and services.
Impact of Rising Unemployment and Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has significantly dropped as Americans face rising unemployment and dwindling savings. Many individuals perceive a looming economic downturn and become anxious about their financial situations, compounding the effects of lower incomes not meeting expenses. As people witness friends losing jobs and hear of companies hinting at layoffs, they become increasingly cautious about spending. This heightened anxiety signals a potential shift in consumer behavior, prompting individuals to withdraw from discretionary purchases and save what little they can.
Manufacturing Sector Responding to Consumer Demand Drop
The manufacturing sector has recently shown signs of weakness, as new orders and inventories decline, reflecting the faltering demand from consumers unable to afford products. While wholesalers and retailers had previously increased their inventories anticipating consumer spending, the current reality reveals a mismatch between supply and actual consumer demand. As businesses face growing backlogs and decreased orders, signals point toward potential job cuts and reduced hours in manufacturing, further impacting the labor market. This situation indicates a troubling trend, suggesting that even if the services sector appears robust, it too may soon feel the consequences of declining consumer power.
According to the latest update, US consumers are out of savings. As nominal incomes have slowed way down, consumers have cut back only somewhat mainly spending on goods - causing the goods recession every big-name company is currently warning over. With unemployment rising and savings gone, there's no margin left even to maintain the current rate of decline.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre