RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes
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May 9, 2025 The discussion kicks off with insights on tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s stance, emphasizing their impact on markets. Humorously, the implications of a new Pope are examined alongside communion suggestions. Market dynamics take center stage, highlighting the significance of retests and the bear market threshold. Listeners dive into cultural references, like the New York Knicks and their influence on ticket prices. Political challenges are also addressed, shedding light on House Republicans and their strategies against economic hurdles.
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RenMac Retest Indicator Insight
- The RenMac retest indicator suggests that if the market rallies 50% from a 20%+ decline, the chance of retesting lows drops significantly.
- Though it didn't work in 2008, this indicator now signals a more neutral near-term market and potential re-engagement in the uptrend.
Investment Focus on Beta & Leaders
- Focus on beta trades as they remain deeply undervalued and oversold.
- Look for relative strength and new highs especially in areas like software security and payment systems.
Fed's Misreading Economy Impact
- The Fed may be underestimating economic weakness by attributing slow growth to tariffs alone.
- Tariffs cause margin squeezes that can reduce employment and investment before price increases appear.