From geopolitics to rate cuts: What’s shaping commodities markets?

Sep 30, 2025

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, shares her insights on how geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, are affecting global oil supply. She explains why oil demand remains robust despite fears of a slowdown and discusses the dynamics of metal demand among China, the US, and Europe. Natasha also analyzes how historical Fed rate cuts impact commodities and the reasons behind gold's rally during these cycles, revealing intriguing links between financial policies and commodity prices.

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INSIGHT

Demand Shows No Structural Slowdown

Natasha Kaneva finds no structural slowdown in oil demand and sees strong travel and port activity globally.
Seasonal pullbacks exist but underlying demand trends remain robust across regions.

ANECDOTE

On-the-Ground Metals Takeaways

Gregory Shearer recounts observations from a metals industry event and China demand dynamics this year.
He notes first-half strength driven by front-loading and a mid-year downshift that remains firmer than expected.

INSIGHT

Ukraine Attacks Cut Russian Refining

Natasha Kaneva reports Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and shifted targets to ports and repeat strikes.
These strikes have reduced Russian refining output by roughly 600kbd and raised domestic fuel prices.

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In this episode, Greg Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Research, is joined by Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Research. Together, they dive into the key factors currently shaping commodities markets — from the evolving geopolitical landscape to the interest rate environment. How have recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure impacted global oil supply? And how have Fed cutting cycles historically affected oil prices and broader commodity returns? Tune in for expert insights on supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical risk premiums and more.

This episode was recorded on September 26, 2025.

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