The Blockspace Pod: The Metric That Will Signal A Bitcoin Bottom w/ Checkmatey

Jan 13, 2026

James Check, co-founder of CheckOnChain and an insightful on-chain analyst, discusses the turbulent Bitcoin landscape of early 2026. He highlights Bitcoin's recent decoupling from equities, driven by significant sell-side pressure from long-term holders. The podcast dives into the intriguing effects of ETFs, including a staggering $6.5 billion in outflows, and explores the relationship between Bitcoin and gold as complementary assets. Check also critiques the four-year cycle narrative, emphasizing the importance of realized cap metrics in predicting market trends.

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ANECDOTE

Deleting X Helped Him Unplug

James Check unplugged by deleting X (Twitter) from his phone for months and checks rarely on desktop.
He reports the break improved focus and reduced noise while staying informed periodically.

INSIGHT

Bitcoin Is Fairly Priced Around $90K

Bitcoin sits 'dead center' across valuation models, implying no dominant gravity direction right now.
James Check says approx $90k represents fair value by multiple metrics, meaning current price is neutral not extreme.

INSIGHT

ETFs Improve On-Chain Visibility

ETFs provide another clear lens for on-chain analysis because they are large, pooled custody vehicles like exchanges.
James Check argues ETF flows align with on-chain and futures signals, improving confidence when all three agree.

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James Check joins the show to analyze Bitcoin's market structure in early 2026. We discuss the divergence between BTC and equities, the impact of "extraordinary" ETFs, and why the Realized Cap suggests a cooling-off period. Plus, deep dives into quantum computing risks and on-chain data.

James Check, Co-Founder of Check on Chain, joins us to talk about the current state of Bitcoin in 2026. James breaks down why Bitcoin decoupled from the wider market in late 2025, the massive sell-side pressure from long-term holders, and why on-chain metrics point to a bear market phase. We also explore the "extraordinary" nature of ETF flows, the quantum computing debate, and why gold and Bitcoin are ultimately the same trade.

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Notes:

* ETF outflows reached ~$6.5 billion

* Bitcoin price down 35% from ATH

* Miners earn ~450 coins per day

* Long-term holders sold 10k coins/day

* Realized Cap is currently trending lower

* Bitcoin fair value is approx $90k

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

03:25 Current state of the market

07:52 ETF vs. chain analytics

10:49 ETF outflows & price drivers

14:00 Retail ETF buyers

18:56 Whale selling?

20:37 Gold

25:34 4 yr cycle is crap

32:07 Good indicators

35:57 What's exciting in Bitcoin now?

40:58 Evolving views on Bitcoin

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