The Real Signal: Watch the Realized Cap

James Check joins the show to analyze Bitcoin's market structure in early 2026. We discuss the divergence between BTC and equities, the impact of "extraordinary" ETFs, and why the Realized Cap suggests a cooling-off period. Plus, deep dives into quantum computing risks and on-chain data.

James Check, Co-Founder of Check on Chain, joins us to talk about the current state of Bitcoin in 2026. James breaks down why Bitcoin decoupled from the wider market in late 2025, the massive sell-side pressure from long-term holders, and why on-chain metrics point to a bear market phase. We also explore the "extraordinary" nature of ETF flows, the quantum computing debate, and why gold and Bitcoin are ultimately the same trade.

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Notes:

* ETF outflows reached ~$6.5 billion

* Bitcoin price down 35% from ATH

* Miners earn ~450 coins per day

* Long-term holders sold 10k coins/day

* Realized Cap is currently trending lower

* Bitcoin fair value is approx $90k

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

03:25 Current state of the market

07:52 ETF vs. chain analytics

10:49 ETF outflows & price drivers

14:00 Retail ETF buyers

18:56 Whale selling?

20:37 Gold

25:34 4 yr cycle is crap

32:07 Good indicators

35:57 What's exciting in Bitcoin now?

40:58 Evolving views on Bitcoin

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