Daniel W. Drezner, a Tufts University professor and sanctions expert, joins Allie Renison, a trade policy specialist, and Chris Sabatini, a Latin America researcher, to delve into the complexities of sanctions. They discuss how sanctions can hold governments accountable but often harm ordinary citizens. The conversation covers historical and contemporary case studies, the evolution of sanctions post-EU for the UK, and the unintended consequences on economies and political alliances. They also ponder the dollar's status and the moral dilemmas surrounding the effectiveness of sanctions.
Sanctions can lead to increased corruption and the rise of black markets, complicating future economic recovery in affected nations.
The effectiveness of sanctions varies widely, with historical examples illustrating both successful outcomes and significant unintended consequences.
Deep dives
The Impact of Sanctions on Corruption and Black Markets
Sanctions, regardless of their intended purpose, often lead to increased corruption and the proliferation of black market activities within the target economy. As governments impose restrictions on trade and finance, individuals and groups are incentivized to find alternative means to sustain their livelihoods, resulting in illicit markets that can thrive under such conditions. For instance, in Venezuela, sanctions instigated cooperation between countries like Iran and Russia, helping Venezuela circumvent sanctions by establishing illicit channels for oil processing and trade. This corruption creates a legacy in the affected nation, where these networks persist long after the sanctions are lifted, complicating future economic recovery and stability.
Historical Context and Evolution of Sanctions
Sanctions have a long historical precedent dating back to ancient times, but their modern utilization gained significant traction following World War I. The effectiveness of sanctions has often varied, with notable successes such as the end of apartheid in South Africa being overshadowed by failures like those experienced in Iraq, where civilian suffering intensified under sanctions. The evolution of sanctions escalated post-Cold War as the U.S. leveraged its control over the dollar to enforce financial measures, especially after 9/11, facilitating the imposition of targeted financial sanctions. This expansion reflects a shift in strategy, emphasizing economic pressure as a tool for policy changes in other nations.
The Role of the U.S. in the Global Sanctions Landscape
The United States stands out as the predominant user of sanctions globally, accounting for a significant percentage of their imposition. While the U.S. seeks to impose its influence, which can be effective in some allied nations, it has often been counterproductive in relationships with adversarial states, reinforcing regimes rather than undermining them. Sanctions against countries like Cuba have resulted in the entrenchment of governmental power rather than political change. Moreover, the unilateral nature of many U.S. sanctions has raised concerns among allies about potential overreach and has spurred some nations to explore alternatives to the dollar in international trade.
Consequential Effects and Future Challenges of Sanctions
Sanctions not only fail to achieve their strategic goals at times but can also create enduring obstacles to international relations by entrenching divisions. For instance, secondary sanctions in Venezuela have allowed adversarial countries like Russia and China to gain significant influence over its oil resources and negotiate leverage during debt restructurings. The evolving nature of sanctions, which increasingly resemble trade wars rather than cooperative international efforts, raises questions about their legitimacy and long-term efficacy. The systemic repercussions of their use may ultimately undermine the credibility of sanctions as a foreign policy tool, leading to calls for more measured approaches that prioritize diplomatic engagement.
Sanctions regimes are intended to be preferable to military force as a tool of foreign policy, but do they work to change behaviour or end up hurting ordinary people? With Bronwen Maddox is Daniel W Drezner, Professor of International Politics at Tufts University, Allie Renison, Associate Director at SEC Newgate, and Chris Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America with our US and Americas Programme.
