BiggerPockets Money Podcast Will 2026 Healthcare Costs Destroy Financial Independence for Millions?
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Nov 25, 2025 Matt McGough, a policy analyst at KFF specializing in the Affordable Care Act, joins the hosts to discuss looming healthcare challenges. He warns that enhanced ACA tax credits set to expire in 2026 could lead to soaring health insurance costs, jeopardizing many people's financial independence. Matt shares projections for insurance premiums, identifies those most vulnerable, and offers strategies to mitigate risks. He also explores alternatives for early retirees and emphasizes the importance of navigating ACA-compliant plans.
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2026 Subsidy Cliff Threat
- Enhanced ACA premium tax credits could end in 2026 and make marketplace premiums jump dramatically for many early retirees.
- Matt McGough explains this change could double or triple premiums overnight for affected people.
Who Uses ACA Marketplaces
- About half of Americans get insurance via employers and roughly 10% buy coverage on the ACA exchanges.
- KFF notes marketplace enrollment has grown but still represents a minority of the insured population.
How Enhanced Credits Changed The Market
- The original ACA included premium tax credits; COVID-era enhancements expanded eligibility and removed the 400% FPL 'cliff.'
- Enhanced credits capped premiums at 8.5% of income and included people above 400% FPL.