Big Take Wait, Weren’t We Supposed to Have a Recession in 2025?
17 snips
Dec 15, 2025 
Stacey Vanek-Smith, a financial journalist and host of Bloomberg's Everybody's Business, teams up with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, to dissect the surprising resilience of the economy in 2025. They explore the mixed signals from the labor market and inflation, challenge past recession predictions, and discuss the impacts of AI on growth. Mark highlights a risky economic landscape due to fragile growth and high stock valuations, while both stress the importance of immigration reform and fiscal stability as we head into 2026.
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Economy Like Alice In Wonderland
- The 2025 economy felt like Alice in Wonderland because key indicators conflicted and no single narrative fit the data.
- Stacey Vanek-Smith says jobs, markets, inflation, and sentiment were topsy-turvy and often contradicted each other.
Strong Growth, Fragile Foundation
- The U.S. grew above 3% in 2025 yet recession odds for 2026 remain elevated around 30–42% among analysts.
- Mark Zandi warns growth is fragile and the economy needs many variables to
Deglobalization Versus AI Tailwind
- Two dominant forces are colliding: deglobalization and tariffs acting as headwinds, and AI as a tailwind.
- Mark Zandi says these forces are in a tug-of-war and any shift could push the economy into recession.
