Why Recession Predictions Kept Failing

All year, the jobs market, consumer sentiment, AI and inflation flashed warning signs about the economy — but 2025 managed to avoid a recession.

On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder talks with Bloomberg’s Stacey Vanek Smith and Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi to understand what this year’s wonky economy can tell us as we head into 2026 and what to watch for in the new year.

Read more: US Recession Risk Is Receding as We Move Into 2026

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