The Arms Control Primer Better know a non-nuke: Iran
Oct 2, 2025
Dr. Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment, and Dr. Azadeh Zamirirad, a senior Iran researcher at SWP, delve into Iran's complex nuclear program. They discuss its roots under the Shah, the significance of uranium enrichment for Iran's identity, and the implications of the JCPOA. The conversation touches on the challenges after the US exited the deal, the geopolitical risks of 2025 conflicts, and possible pathways for Iran’s nuclear future amidst rising tensions and strategic uncertainties.
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Origins And Covert Shift
- Iran's nuclear program began under the Shah and evolved from civilian aims into covert weaponization efforts after the revolution.
- The AQ Khan network and Natanz revelations marked the shift to clandestine enrichment activities.
JCPOA's Two Strong Pillars
- The JCPOA combined strict technical limits and the most intrusive verification regime on an NPT member.
- Together these pillars created a roughly one-year-plus breakout buffer and strong monitoring.
Snapback And The JCPOA Limits
- The JCPOA contained a snapback mechanism enabling sanctions reimposition through wording that prevented Russian or Chinese vetoes.
- Critics still pointed to sunset clauses and weak coverage of weaponization and missiles.