The Data Exchange with Ben Lorica The Highly Uncertain Future of OpenAI’s Dominance
May 29, 2025
Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of Futuresearch, challenges OpenAI's ambitious $125 billion revenue target, citing intense competition and revenue pressures. He discusses the complexities of AI revenue strategies and the impact of user behavior on sustainability. The conversation highlights concerns over talent moving to rivals and contrasts early AI optimism with current market realities. Exploring future revenue streams, Schwarz expresses skepticism about the pace of growth, emphasizing the competitive landscape dominated by tech giants like Google and Meta.
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Skepticism on OpenAI's Revenue
- OpenAI's $125 billion revenue by 2029 is plausible but highly implausible according to FutureSearch.
- Fierce competition, revenue pressures, and fleeting technical advantages challenge this projection.
ChatGPT Revenue Dominates OpenAI
- ChatGPT dominates OpenAI revenue, not API usage, comprising no more than 15%.
- Enterprise ChatGPT is growing but future API revenue expansion is viewed skeptically.
OpenAI Revenue Forecast Uncertainty
- Forecasting OpenAI's revenue into 2027 is highly uncertain with wide confidence intervals.
- Competition, litigation, and talent loss could thwart exponential growth despite its plausibility.