Independent Thinking Trump, Gaza and shutdown
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Oct 10, 2025 Laurel Rapp, Director of the U.S. and North America Programme, shares insights on the domestic chaos from the ongoing government shutdown and its economic implications. Max Yoeli, Senior Research Fellow in London, analyzes the political dynamics and symbolism of U.S. policy amid these tensions. They discuss Trump's efforts in brokering a peace deal for Gaza, its potential impact on his domestic standing, and how a successful outcome could reshape international views of the U.S., alongside the immediate risks involved.
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Shutdown Causes Widespread Uncertainty
- The shutdown furloughs create widespread uncertainty as hundreds of thousands of federal workers go without pay.
- Essential national security staff still work unpaid, stretching households and services nationwide.
Shutdown Hits Beyond Washington D.C.
- The economic and local impact concentrates in Washington but also spreads because 80% of federal workers live outside D.C.
- Public services like air traffic control can force a political resolution if operational strain becomes severe.
Economic Data Gaps Hurt Fed Decisions
- Shutdowns materially reduce GDP and may cost far more than 2019's $11bn estimate.
- Missing government data like CPI and jobs reports undermines the Federal Reserve's ability to set rates.