Less Noise, More Signal Luke Gromen: US capital controls are inevitable! Here’s what you need to know
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May 22, 2025 
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, is a macro strategist renowned for his insights on economic shifts. In this discussion, he reveals the inevitability of U.S. capital controls and their potential impacts on the dollar's reserve status. Gromen highlights the contradictions in U.S. economic policies and suggests that Bitcoin may thrive in a future of capital restrictions. The conversation also covers the challenges of projecting military power and managing U.S. debt, hinting at an emerging new monetary order shaped by global dynamics.
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Dollar Overvaluation Is The Core Problem
- The fundamental U.S. economic problem is the overvalued dollar due to its reserve currency status.
- The fix is to adopt a neutral reserve asset like gold to settle deficits and allow the dollar to float downward.
Capital Controls Are Inevitable
- The U.S. is moving toward capital controls, especially on foreign investments in its markets.
- Implementing capital controls abruptly risks crashing the stock and bond markets and triggering a dollar crisis.
Gold Price Supports U.S. Treasury Health
- A rising gold price benefits the U.S. government by providing a large deposit in the treasury's general account.
- This could reduce the need for U.S. debt issuance and ease fiscal pressure despite a weaker dollar.