Consumer VC: Venture Capital I B2C Startups I Commerce | Early-Stage Investing I Brands | Technology Consumer Isn’t Dead, VC Just Got It Wrong ft. Michael Duda
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Dec 16, 2025 
Michael Duda, Founder and Managing Partner of Bullish, dives into the evolving world of consumer investing. He shares insights on why early-stage consumer brands can yield power-law returns. Duda discusses the importance of great products over marketing and how celebrity endorsements can help—but only if they're authentic. He also highlights how AI is transforming consumer innovation without losing the human touch and examines the implications of a shrinking middle class on brand targeting. It's a thought-provoking look at what drives success in consumer ventures.
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Consumer Is A Power-Law Asset
- Consumer is a $20 trillion TAM and can produce power-law returns if you invest early enough.
- Early-stage consumer exits of $150–$250M deliver 8–12x, which are meaningful wins for smaller funds.
Rarity Of 100x Outcomes
- 100x outcomes are rare across venture and even rarer in many consumer verticals.
- Expect a handful of outsized winners; consistent 3–4x portfolio returns in consumer are excellent.
Prioritize Consumer Revenue And Proposition
- Invest where the consumer is the direct revenue engine and avoid models that monetize advertisers instead.
- Focus on the 'why' of the product more than the 'how' because the consumer benefit drives adoption.