What Bitcoin Did Has the Debt Spiral Started? | Luke Gromen
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Oct 15, 2025 
In this discussion, Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees and a macro analyst, dives into the precarious U.S. debt situation. He explores the potential for financial repression and inflation as tools to manage debt while emphasizing how AI could disrupt the current monetary system. Luke predicts stablecoins might replace the petrodollar and highlights gold and Bitcoin as the safest investments of this decade. He also reflects on the societal implications of job loss due to AI and the crisis of meaning that may emerge in a rapidly changing economy.
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Rebalance Over Defend The Bond Market
- The U.S. must choose between defending bondholders or rebalancing the economy toward manufacturing and skilled trades.
- Luke Gromen argues cutting rates and running the economy hot can rebuild domestic industry but will be inflationary short-term.
Debt Levels Make Inflation A Political Choice
- High debt plus a shock forces governments into a binary choice: default or print money to keep debt serviceable.
- Gromen warns that printing to preserve nominal debt has historically produced the largest inflations.
AI Labor Versus Debt-Based Money
- Autonomous AI labor threatens the debt-based monetary system by destroying income streams used to service loans.
- Gromen argues mass automation could trigger mortgage and credit defaults, forcing banks to sell treasuries and creating a debt spiral.
