Latin America Reacts to Trump’s Election, With Will Freeman (Transition 2025, Episode 5)
Dec 3, 2024
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Will Freeman, a Fellow for Latin America studies at CFR specializing in rule of law and organized crime, discusses the reactions to Trump’s election across Latin America. He highlights how leaders braced for shifts in U.S. policy, particularly regarding migration. The diverse responses from conservative and left-leaning governments showcase the region's complex political landscape. Freeman also examines the intricate ties between drug trafficking and U.S.-Mexico relations, arguing for long-term solutions to persistent issues rather than simplistic approaches.
Latin American governments are bracing for a more coercive U.S. diplomacy under Trump, particularly concerning migration negotiations.
The political landscape in Latin America showcases a split response to Trump, with conservative leaders welcoming him and left-leaning governments opposing his presidency.
Deep dives
Latin America's Reaction to Trump's Election
Latin America largely anticipated Donald Trump's election outcome, with many governments preparing for its implications across the region. A significant expectation is that U.S. diplomacy will adopt a more coercive approach, reinforcing the Monroe Doctrine and sidelining other powers like China. Countries are strategizing how to negotiate, particularly regarding Trump's determination to address migration, with many migrants from Latin America heading to the U.S. Consequently, regional governments are likely to utilize migration as leverage in negotiations or adapt their domestic policies in response to Trump's administration.
Political Alignments and Diverse Reactions
Political dynamics in Latin America reveal a mix of alignment and opposition to Trump's presidency. For instance, conservative leaders in Argentina and El Salvador expressed enthusiasm for Trump's leadership, viewing themselves as allies with shared interests. In contrast, left-leaning governments in Colombia and Brazil publicly opposed Trump, indicating a political rift across the region. This divergence in response underlines the complex political landscape that Trump must navigate as he seeks to establish relationships with various Latin American countries.
Key Focus on Mexico and Central America
The relationship between the U.S. and Mexico will be crucial, especially regarding trade and migration issues. Trump has proposed steep tariffs on Mexican goods, which could drastically impact the U.S. economy, given Mexico's role as a top trading partner. Northern Central American countries will also be under heightened scrutiny due to their continuing migration to the U.S., with potential threats of diminished U.S. support if their governments do not align with Trump's policies. The dynamics between these countries highlight the precarious balance Trump must maintain while addressing these intertwined economic and social issues.
Potential Policy Directions and Challenges
The Trump administration may face significant challenges in addressing drug trafficking and migration in Latin America. Key proposals, such as the potential for military intervention in Mexico to target drug cartels, could exacerbate tensions rather than lead to effective solutions. Moreover, Trump's pledge to ramp up deportations may destabilize economies in Central America, where remittances play a vital role. Despite these obstacles, opportunities for constructive engagement, such as expanding trade agreements, could arise, potentially benefiting both U.S. interests and Latin American countries seeking economic stability.
Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in Latin America and what his policies toward the region might be. This episode is the fifth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2025 presidential transition and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.