Iran's historic attack on Israel, intercepted by the US, sparks tension. Experts discuss escalation, shadow war strategies, and regional dynamics. Analyzing Iran's nuclear ambitions, interconnected conflicts in Israel and Gaza.
Iran's strategic alliances with proxy groups in the Middle East bolster its influence and pressure on Israel.
Iran's attack on Israel aimed to establish deterrence without sparking a full-scale conflict, reflecting a shift towards bolder responses to safeguard its regional standing.
Deep dives
Iran's Strategic Network in the Middle East
Iran has strategically shaped the Middle East by building relationships with proxy groups over the years, bolstering its position and exerting pressure on Israel. The founding of the Islamic Republic initiated a strategy of forming alliances worldwide, enhancing Iran's influence. After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran expanded this network of groups, providing strategic depth and operational flexibility.
Iran's Shift Towards Direct Attacks on Israel
Following mounting costs in Gaza conflicts, Iran faced attacks on its assets and allies, intensifying internal pressures. The attack on the Iranian consular facility in Damascus marked a significant escalation, leading Iran to launch a direct assault on Israel. Iran aimed to redraw boundaries to deter further attacks, exhibiting a more risk-tolerant approach due to internal and external pressures.
Impact of Iranian Attack on Israel and Future Scenarios
Iran's attack on Israel aimed to establish deterrence without sparking a full-scale conflict. Despite the high-risk operation, Iran intended minimal destruction and no fatalities. The attack reflected a shift towards bolder responses to safeguard Iran's regional standing. The potential for miscalculation poses risks of escalating tensions and broader conflict involving Hezbollah.
Challenges and Policy Recommendations for De-escalation
The escalating tensions pose risks of a cycle of response leading to uncontrollable conflict. Regional states like Jordan aim to contain the situation, while extra-regional powers may benefit from the instability. To avert further escalation and enhance long-term US-Iran relations, a reset in engagement with Iran and diplomatic efforts are crucial. Addressing Iran's security concerns while ensuring international commitments can prevent a nuclear-capable Iran and stabilize the region.
On April 13, Iran did something it had never done before: it launched a direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. As historic and spectacular as the attack was, Israel, the United States, and others managed to intercept a huge percentage of the drones and missiles fired, and the damage inflicted by Iranian strikes was minor. Still, the world is waiting tensely to see how Israel will respond—and whether the Middle East can avoid full-scale war.
To understand the attack and its consequences, Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program, and Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
We discuss where this conflict could go next—and how to bring the two sides back from the brink of war.