Is the 21st Century India's Time to Shine? Decoding India's Geopolitics by Neelkanth Mishra Part 2
Feb 26, 2024
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Delving into India's global geopolitics, discussing diplomatic milestones and the Fourth Turn Theory. Analyzing USA-China relations and India's role in the evolving geopolitical landscape. Exploring China Plus One strategy and India's potential as a manufacturing powerhouse.
India's growing economic influence positions it as a key global player by 2030.
Tensions between US and China signal a significant power shift with potential geopolitical implications.
India's focus on manufacturing growth and strategic alliances key to navigating complex global geopolitics.
Deep dives
Global Geopolitics and India's Rising Significance on the World Stage
India is projected to become a significant player in global economics by 2030, with a 10-15% share of the world GDP, making it a center of gravity in the international arena. As India's stature rises, its participation in events like the G20 reflects recognition of its growing influence. The interconnectedness of global geopolitics means India must pay attention to broader world events, such as tensions between the US and China, which could impact India directly.
US-China Relations and the Complex Dynamics of Power Play
The tension between the US and China reveals a complex power shift between established and rising superpowers. From a history of trade partnerships to brewing uncertainties, the relationship is undergoing significant changes. Strategic theories suggest that every 80-100 years, a power shift occurs, leading to potential conflict. China's emergence and assertiveness challenge existing global norms, affecting diplomatic and economic landscapes globally.
Manufacturing as a Critical Factor in India's Economic Growth Strategy
Amid discussions on China Plus One strategy and global trade diversification away from China, India's manufacturing sector's growth appears crucial. Encouraging manufacturing, especially high-value sectors like semiconductor production, can fortify India's economic resilience. Initiatives like the PLI schemes aim to attract foreign investment and promote domestic manufacturing expertise to position India favorably in the global trade landscape.
Balancing Relationships with Russia and Navigating Geopolitical Alliances
India's historical ties with Russia and implications for its oil procurement illustrate nuanced geopolitical balances. Economic dealings amid Russian-Ukrainian tensions underscore the need for India to blend principles with pragmatic interests in its global engagements. As India's economic significance grows, managing relationships with key players like Russia becomes vital in navigating complex geopolitical terrains.
Geopolitical Engagements and Strategic Alliances
The podcast discusses the importance of India's engagement in geopolitics by forming strategic alliances to protect its interests. It emphasizes the need for India to increase its diplomatic bandwidth to navigate complex international relationships effectively. The episode highlights the evolving dynamics of India's relationships with countries like Israel and Arabic nations, showcasing the significance of maintaining a balanced approach in international affairs. Additionally, it stresses the importance of India becoming a principled player on the global stage to ensure a seat at the table.
Economic Collaboration and Climate Change
The podcast delves into the intersection of economic interests and geopolitics, emphasizing the crucial role of economic integration in fostering regional stability. It underscores the significance of economic collaborations with neighboring countries to enhance trade and infrastructure development for mutual benefits. Furthermore, the episode explores India's stance on climate change, addressing the challenge of balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. It underscores the need for India to invest in renewable energy sources to combat climate change while navigating the complexities of global carbon emission regulations.
In the second episode of our series with Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist - Axis Bank and Head of Global Research - Axis Capital, we delve into India's position in global geopolitics, reflecting on the recent G20 hosted by the country. Neelkanth shares insights on diplomatic milestones achieved, including consensus on contentious issues and the expansion of membership.
The discussion revolves around the Fourth Turn Theory, highlighting the unique challenges of the current geopolitical landscape. As the decline of American power and the rise of new players like China and India unfold, Neelkanth explores how to prepare for the impending changes.
Join us as we recap these significant insights and explore the role India can play in the evolving geopolitical scenarios on the horizon.
Chapters:
00:00:00 - 00:00:58 Coming up!
00:00:58 - 00:01:11 Opening theme
00:01:11 - 00:02:21 Mukesh talks about India’s increasing prominence in the global economic landscape
00:02:21 - 00:28:10 USA and China: What made them go from friends to foe?
00:28:10 - 00:34:51 What role does India play in the USA-China dynamic?
00:34:51 - 00:41:37 Unravelling China and India's geopolitical ties and roles in the intricate game of global politics
00:41:37 - 00:52:03 Neelkanth provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategy and execution required behind the China Plus One approach
00:52:03 - 00:58:50 Can India be a global manufacturing powerhouse, leveraging China Plus One?
00:58:50 - 01:14:38 Neelkanth highlights the global impact of war, stressing need for India's strategic participation in world affairs while safeguarding national interests
01:14:38 - 01:21:13 Neelkanth emphasizes G20's greater relevance for India in addressing global issues and the need for more such inclusive forums
01:21:13 - 01:27:15 Neelkanth delves into the rationale behind countries forming alliances to address shared challenges or counter specific nations
01:27:15 - 01:33:33 How can India balance carbon emission reduction with fostering economic growth?
01:33:33 - 01:38:06 Is India's engagement with economically smaller neighbors crucial for regional political influence?
01:38:06 - 01:40:32 Mukesh and Neelkanth discuss the importance for Indians to take more interest in the global affairs and the world economy
Resources
The Fourth Turn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss...
Semiconductor Industry in Taiwan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semicon...
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022 to support its democracy, but China opposed the visit and conducted military drills around the island: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08...
Plaza Accord: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/...https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/...
QUAD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadril...
AUKUS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
One China Policy: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-c...
BRICS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
SAARC: https://mfasia.org/mfa_programs/advoc...
NAFTA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_A...
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