Rethinking Democracy Ep. 4: China's Growing Presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman
Sep 26, 2024
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Dr. F. Gregory Gause, a scholar in Middle Eastern politics, and Dr. Jon Alterman, a U.S. foreign policy expert, delve into China’s rising influence in the Middle East. They discuss how China promotes its authoritarian model as an appealing alternative to Western democracy, reshaping regional governance. The conversation highlights China’s role in mediating conflicts, contrasting its non-interference approach with U.S. strategies, and questions the effectiveness of U.S. foreign aid. They also explore the complexities and realities behind China's strategic agreements in the region.
China's increasing influence in the Middle East offers autocratic regimes economic partnerships without political conditionality, contrasting sharply with U.S. demands for democratization.
The strategic mediation role of China, exemplified by its involvement in the Saudi-Iran agreement, reshapes regional diplomacy and challenges U.S. dominance.
Deep dives
The Global Rise of China's Influence
China's increasing presence in the Middle East has transformed its role from a passive energy client to a key player in the region's geopolitics. The country has forged significant diplomatic relations, exemplified by President Xi Jinping mediating a historic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which challenged the notion of U.S. dominance. This shift indicates that China is strategically leveraging economic partnerships to undercut U.S. influence while presenting itself as an alternative model of development. Such engagement suggests that countries in the Middle East no longer feel compelled to choose sides between the U.S. and China, instead favoring a multipolar approach to international relations.
China's Non-Aligned Diplomatic Strategy
China aims to position itself as a neutral partner that does not require countries to align with its ideologies. It promotes a vision of mutual respect and bilateral ties, which appeals to Gulf states seeking to diversify their international relationships without political conditionality. Unlike the U.S., which often pushes for democratization, China focuses on commercial relationships, allowing regional governments to maintain their existing political structures. This strategy has led many Middle Eastern countries to perceive China more favorably, viewing it as a pragmatic alternative that disregards Western pressures for reform.
Contrasting Models of Development and Governance
The U.S. has historically aimed to promote democracy and development through models that encourage political liberalization, as seen with Egypt and its aid programs. In contrast, China's approach avoids imposing governance models and instead offers economic cooperation without political strings attached. This difference creates an attractive alternative for authoritarian regimes in the Middle East that prefer minimal external scrutiny regarding their governance. The allure of the Chinese development model lies in its promise of economic growth without the pressure for political reform, thus appealing to leaders who fear instability from democratization efforts.
Implications for Autocracy in the Region
China's engagement in the Middle East supports the entrenchment of autocratic regimes by providing surveillance technology and infrastructural investments that bolster state control. While China may not act as a protector of these regimes in the same way the U.S. does, it offers crucial support that strengthens autocrats’ grip on power without demanding political change. This relationship influences how regional leaders perceive alternatives to U.S. support, encouraging them to look towards Beijing for pragmatic assistance in governance. The ongoing affinity for Chinese partnerships suggests that as long as autocracies can benefit from economic cooperation, they will likely continue to resist Western-led democratic reforms.
About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them.
In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies?
Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
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