Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability
Jan 30, 2025
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Lee Everett, Head of Research and Strategy at Cortland, sheds light on the troubling future of housing affordability. He discusses how rising interest rates have dramatically reduced new apartment development, leading to an impending supply crisis. Everett highlights the combined impact of labor shortages due to deportations and escalating insurance costs, all while rent prices have just begun to stabilize. With economic tensions mounting, a new shock to housing affordability could be on the horizon, affecting renters and buyers alike.
The slowdown in the growth of rent prices may be temporary, as high demand coupled with declining housing supply could lead to future affordability shocks.
Federal spending cuts and labor shortages in construction are poised to worsen the challenges of affordable housing availability in the coming years.
Deep dives
The Current State of Rent Growth and Inflation
Rent prices in the U.S. have become a significant factor contributing to overall inflation, particularly as the government's measures for rent price growth have begun to moderate. Although rent continues to rise, the pace of its increase is slowing down, potentially approaching pre-COVID levels. Interestingly, while inflation has decreased, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have impacted housing development by making capital more expensive. This results in fewer new housing projects being initiated, which could create a supply-demand imbalance in the future.
Impact of Interest Rates on Multifamily Housing
The multifamily housing sector faces increasing stress as interest rates remain high, affecting both established and new developers differently. Larger, well-established firms may be better positioned to manage these financial pressures, while newer entrants struggle under heavier debt burdens. Many developers are navigating a complex landscape where the ability to refinance or negotiate loans is becoming increasingly challenging, particularly for those without strong lender relationships. This creates a more precarious environment for both development and maintaining existing properties, impacting overall market stability.
Shifts in Rental Market Dynamics
There is an anticipated shift in the rental market where it will transition from being renter-friendly to more landlord-friendly due to supply constraints. A significant influx of demand for rental units is expected, coinciding with a decrease in the number of new apartments being built, especially in high-quality locations. This imbalance could result in escalating rent prices, particularly in desirable areas, as the market struggles to keep pace with burgeoning demand. As a result, renters may find it increasingly challenging to secure affordable housing in preferred locations.
Federal Spending and Labor Challenges Impacting Construction
Federal spending cuts could significantly affect affordable housing developments, particularly programs that provide necessary funds for construction and rent assistance. The construction industry is also facing labor shortages, exacerbated by federal immigration policies and high insurance costs associated with building properties. Labor deficits from deportation and demand for reconstruction in areas affected by wildfires are likely to strain resources even further. These challenges contribute to an environment where the feasibility of constructing new multifamily housing diminishes, potentially worsening housing affordability in the long run.
One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike.