The Axis of Autocracies Challenge, With Jennifer Kavanagh and Andrea Kendall-Taylor (Election 2024, Episode 7)
Oct 29, 2024
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Jennifer Kavanagh, a military analysis expert from Defense Priorities, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a specialist in Transatlantic security at the Center for a New American Security, discuss the rising cooperation among authoritarian regimes such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. They delve into the implications of this alliance for global security, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict. The duo also examines the distrust within these partnerships and the need for the U.S. to recalibrate its foreign policy to navigate these complex international dynamics effectively.
The cooperation among autocratic regimes like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is driven by geopolitical necessities and military collaboration post-Ukraine invasion.
Despite the term 'axis', the partnerships among these nations are primarily bilateral, lacking cohesive collective goals and driven by individual interests.
In light of growing authoritarian alignment, U.S. policymakers must strengthen alliances and engage with swing states to counteract their influence.
Deep dives
The Rise of the Axis of Autocracy
The increasing alignment among authoritarian regimes, specifically China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, is attributed primarily to geopolitical necessities, particularly following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This event catalyzed greater military collaboration, allowing countries like Iran and North Korea to provide critical military support to Russia, such as drones and ammunition. The dynamics of this partnership illustrate how these nations are enhancing each other's military capabilities while simultaneously seeking technological transfers, such as submarine technology from Russia to China. This cooperation, while pronounced militarily, encompasses political, diplomatic, and economic spheres, highlighting a multi-faceted strategy among these regimes to bolster their mutual objectives.
Bilateral Relationships and Cooperation Limitations
Although the term 'axis' implies a united front, the collaboration among these countries remains primarily bilateral, with individual nations engaging in transactions that do not necessarily signify a cohesive partnership. For example, while Russia may receive military technology from China, the overall cooperation is not as synchronized as seen in established alliances like NATO. This distinction is crucial for understanding the nature of their interactions; self-interest often prevails over collective goals, limiting the potential for a unified front. The variability in these bilateral relationships means they may adapt or dissolve based on changing strategic interests, further complicating the long-term implications of their cooperation.
Trust Issues Within the Axis
One significant challenge to the durability of this alignment is the inherent distrust among the countries involved. Nations such as China, Russia, and North Korea maintain distinct national interests, which prevent them from fully trusting one another, despite their shared disdain for Western influence. For instance, China’s reluctance to provide robust military support to North Korea reflects this wariness, as Beijing seeks to safeguard its own interests while navigating its relationships with its neighbors. Such trust deficits imply that while temporary cooperation may exist, it may not translate into a long-lasting strategic commitment among these authoritarian regimes.
The Role of Shared Animosity
The foundational principle uniting these authoritarian nations appears to be their shared opposition to Western hegemony, demonstrating that their collaboration is more about mutual grievances than shared visions. While leaders like Putin and Xi may find common ground in their desire to oppose the U.S.-led international order, their cooperation is largely defensive, lacking a positive unifying objective. This animosity could foster a temporary alliance; however, the absence of a coherent and mutually beneficial vision raises doubts about the sustainability of their collaboration. Furthermore, individual objectives and geopolitical ambitions could lead to conflicts of interest that ultimately weaken this alignment.
Strategic Responses for the United States
In response to the challenges posed by the rising authoritarian alignment, U.S. policymakers must prioritize essential interests and reassess their foreign policy strategies. Emphasizing the importance of bolstering alliances in Asia and reinforcing the capabilities of regional partners should take precedence, recognizing the increasing threats from China. Additionally, U.S. engagement with 'swing states' such as India and Brazil through diplomatic efforts and trade incentives is vital to counteract the influence of the axis of autocracy. Preparing for potential opportunistic aggression in various theaters will also require a pragmatic approach to ensure the U.S. maintains a strategic advantage while navigating the complexities of a changing geopolitical landscape.
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the nature and significance of growing cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This episode is the seventh in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2024 presidential election and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
