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Odd Lots

Volatility Suppression Turned The Entire Economy Into One Big Carry Trade

Oct 1, 2020
42:21
Snipd AI
Authors Tim Lee, Jamie Lee, and Kevin Coldiron discuss how the entire economy resembles a carry trade due to volatility suppression. They explore the role of central banks in driving the market, the impact of carry trades on the economy and markets, and the consequences of the rise of the carry regime. They also discuss potential solutions for breaking the cycle of sensitive policy and perpetuated financial asset cycles.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The central banks' suppression of volatility has led to the growth of carry trades, which disconnect asset prices from the real economy and exacerbate inequality.
  • Carry trades, such as currency carry trades and property investment, contribute to liquidity in financial markets but also create imbalances and the risk of rapid crashes.

Deep dives

The rise of the carry regime and its impact on markets

The podcast episode discusses the concept of the carry regime and its implications for financial markets. The carry regime refers to a period where financial structures and trades that involve short volatility and leverage dominate the market, driving asset prices and disconnecting them from the real economy. The regime is perpetuated by central banks' suppression of volatility, which encourages the growth of carry trades and exacerbates inequality. The discussants also touch on how the carry regime has changed the way investors think and behave, with buying the dip becoming a common strategy. They suggest that breaking out of the carry regime may be difficult, potentially leading to a cycle of recurring crises and highlighting cryptocurrencies as a potential alternative form of money.

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