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Odd Lots

Volatility Suppression Turned The Entire Economy Into One Big Carry Trade

Oct 1, 2020
In this discussion, Tim Lee, the founder of Pi Economics known for his insights on financial markets, and Kevin Coldiron, a financial engineering lecturer at UC Berkeley, dive into the concept of carry trades. They explain how policymakers' suppression of volatility has turned the economy into a massive carry trade, distorting asset prices and intensifying income inequality. The conversation touches on the implications for liquidity and market behavior amidst rising risks, and questions the future of fiat money in a world increasingly influenced by cryptocurrencies.
42:21

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The central banks' suppression of volatility has led to the growth of carry trades, which disconnect asset prices from the real economy and exacerbate inequality.
  • Carry trades, such as currency carry trades and property investment, contribute to liquidity in financial markets but also create imbalances and the risk of rapid crashes.

Deep dives

The rise of the carry regime and its impact on markets

The podcast episode discusses the concept of the carry regime and its implications for financial markets. The carry regime refers to a period where financial structures and trades that involve short volatility and leverage dominate the market, driving asset prices and disconnecting them from the real economy. The regime is perpetuated by central banks' suppression of volatility, which encourages the growth of carry trades and exacerbates inequality. The discussants also touch on how the carry regime has changed the way investors think and behave, with buying the dip becoming a common strategy. They suggest that breaking out of the carry regime may be difficult, potentially leading to a cycle of recurring crises and highlighting cryptocurrencies as a potential alternative form of money.

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