Forward Guidance The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
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Mar 5, 2025 
Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research with over 35 years of market insight, discusses why he believes a recession is unlikely. He breaks down the current market regime and explores the resilience of various S&P sectors amid economic uncertainties. Jeff compares U.S. markets to those in Europe and China, examines the outlook for yields, credit spreads, and offers perspectives on both gold and Bitcoin. His analysis highlights the investment landscape for 2025, focusing on how policy uncertainty impacts market reactions.
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Market Cycle Clock
- Markets can be leading indicators, often bottoming when news is worst.
- DeGraaf uses a market cycle clock juxtaposing proprietary inflation and growth measures.
Beta Reversion
- High beta stocks' performance versus low beta reached historical extremes, signaling a potential reversion.
- Current market correction is largely a beta correction, impacting sectors like industrials and tech.
Identifying Contrarian Opportunities
- Exercise caution with cheap, declining stocks, as they can be value traps.
- Look for contrarian opportunities where sentiment is extremely negative, valuation is supportive, and relative performance is improving.