Citadel Dispatch CD186: JOHN ARNOLD - TEN31 MARKET UPDATE
Dec 12, 2025
John Arnold, a Partner at Ten31, focuses on investing in Bitcoin businesses. He discusses the effects of institutional trading on Bitcoin prices and how liquidity cycles have overshadowed traditional halving impacts. Quantum computing risks are a major theme, with Arnold detailing vulnerable address types and offering practical mitigations. He also examines why gold and silver are currently outperforming Bitcoin, touches on the implications of Fed policy changes, and shares a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the coming years.
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Halving Calendars Lose Their Power
- Four-year halving cycles are increasingly less relevant as market composition and liquidity cycles dominate price action.
- Institutional players and macro liquidity now shape Bitcoin moves more than calendar halving events.
Institutional Flow Shapes Daily Price Patterns
- Large trading shops harvest volatility and run option strategies that materially affect day-to-day Bitcoin price action.
- IBIT hours and institutional flows can create regular intraday patterns like dumps around U.S. market open.
Avoid Pre/Post Market Trading
- Avoid trading around traditional market pre-market and post-market windows because volume is thin and moves often reverse.
- For most people, stay humble and stack sats instead of active trading.
