Intro

John Arnold is a colleague of mine at Ten31, we are five man team focused on investing in and supporting the best bitcoin businesses globally. This is our third quarterly update where we cover current market dynamics and our outlook.

More info on Ten31: https://www.ten31.xyz

Quantum: https://www.ten31.xyz/insights/quantum-computing-bitcoin-security

Note: AnchorWatch does not use taproot. I was mistaken.

John on Nostr: https://primal.net/john
John on X: https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31
Ten31 on X: https://x.com/ten31funds

EPISODE: 186
BLOCK: 927606
PRICE: 1108 sats per dollar

(00:07:01) Four Year Cycles: Liquidity vs. halving

(00:12:21) Market manipulation?

(00:13:53) Day vs. night: IBIT hours, ETFs, stay humble and stack sats

(00:16:40) Premarket/postmarket liquidity and trading

(00:16:47) Quantum: FUD Rising

(00:24:03) Address types at risk: P2PK, P2PKH race, Taproot exposure

(00:25:11) Practical mitigations

(00:27:28) Long-range vs. short-range quantum attacks and feasibility

(00:28:40) Reality check: scaling physical QC and secrecy constraints

(00:31:01) Coordination and upgrade paths: post-quantum options

(00:33:30) Social contract: no seizure of old coins

(00:36:25) Did quantum FUD drive the drawdown?

(00:40:00) Why gold and silver are at highs while Bitcoin lags

(00:51:06) Mega-cap tech as the new savings account and TINA

(00:57:36) Fed cuts, QT ends, QE or not semantics, and Bitcoins response

(01:07:00) Looking ahead: more cuts, policy path, and 2026 setup

(01:13:01) Giga-bullish case: scarce assets vs. fiscal-monetary impulse

(01:16:03) Gold vs. Bitcoin for individuals and sovereigns

(01:20:02) Counterparty risk with ETFs and the case for self-custody

(01:26:12) Bottom in? Price targets, humility, and risk management

(01:30:29) USD tokens (stablecoins): growth, limits, and policy aims

(01:35:04) Tethers dominance, gold tokens, and a silver tangent

(01:41:03) Closing thoughts: on-chain flows, whos buying, and sign-off