The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: The Saudi-Iran Deal Featuring China
Nov 23, 2025
Jonathan Lord, Director of the Middle East Security Program at CNAS, shares insights on the recent Iran-Saudi deal brokered by China. He discusses the historical tensions between the two nations and the implications of their renewed diplomatic relations. Lord debates China's role as either a mediator or a narrative driver. He also explores the dual Saudi strategy of engagement with Iran while enhancing military capabilities. Additionally, the challenges of achieving stability in Yemen and the potential impact of China’s involvement are examined.
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Restoration, Not Revolution
- Restoring ambassadors returns Iran-Saudi ties to a pre-2016 status quo rather than a deep transformation.
- Scott R. Anderson warns normalization enables communication without guaranteeing substantive policy change.
Longstanding Regional Rivalry
- Iran-Saudi tensions predate 1979 and intensified after U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA.
- Jonathan Lord highlights Iran's multi-domain activities that alarm Gulf states and drove rapprochement efforts.
China As A Convenient Finisher
- Beijing's hosting was likely a convenient political capstone to a years-long rapprochement process.
- Scott R. Anderson argues Riyadh may have chosen China to avoid gifting a diplomatic win to the U.S.