Explore the optimism of Democrats for the upcoming elections as they analyze Biden's polling numbers, the shifts in working-class support, and the disconnect between the economy's reality and voter perception. Learn from past Democratic presidents and midterm elections to shape the campaign early and set the terms of the debate. Understand the changing composition of the Democratic Party and the challenges faced by both parties in catering to their coalitions.
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Quick takeaways
The Democratic Party's decision to allow a relatively unpopular 81-year-old president, Joe Biden, to run again was influenced by their good performance in the 2022 midterm elections and significant legislative victories.
The counter mobilization against the MAGA movement has become a strong force within the Democratic Party, contributing to their success in elections and their ability to maintain grassroots activism and defeat Donald Trump.
The Democratic Party faces challenges in retaining support from working-class voters and needs to address their concerns, effectively communicate the successes of the Biden administration, and emphasize their commitment to democracy and climate change.
Deep dives
The Democratic Party's Strategic Choices with an Unpopular President
The podcast discusses the strategic choices made by the Democratic Party in allowing an unpopular 81-year-old president, Joe Biden, to run again. Despite challenges from within the party, such as running against a strong track record of critical legislation and a well-performing economy, Biden's presidency has seen successes in passing significant legislation and gaining ground in key elections. The decision not to challenge Biden's candidacy was influenced by the party's relatively good performance in the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats gained seats in the Senate and state legislatures, as well as holding down losses in the House. The podcast emphasizes the importance of contextualizing the party's decisions based on performance and election results rather than solely relying on polling numbers.
The Democratic Party's Counter Mobilization and Strength in Elections
The podcast highlights the counter mobilization against the MAGA movement as a strong force within the Democratic Party. Despite concerns about polling numbers and the rhetoric surrounding Donald Trump, Democrats have consistently performed well in elections. The podcast points to the growth of a strong Democratic political machine, with millions of grassroots activists and volunteers working towards electoral victories. This counter mobilization has contributed to the Democratic Party's success in winning elections at all levels, including unexpected wins in traditionally Republican strongholds. The podcast expresses optimism about the Democrats' ability to maintain this counter mobilization and defeat Trump in the upcoming election.
Challenges and Strategies for the Democratic Party
The podcast analyzes the changing composition of the Democratic Party and the challenges it faces in retaining working-class voters. While the party has made gains among higher-income and educated voters, there has been some erosion of support among working-class demographics, particularly working-class men. The podcast discusses the need for the Democratic Party to address the concerns and priorities of working-class voters and make a strong case for why their policies are beneficial. It also emphasizes the importance of effectively communicating the successes of the Biden administration and highlighting the party's commitment to democracy and addressing climate change. The podcast acknowledges the complexities of these challenges and urges the party to invest energy in winning back support from working-class voters.
The importance of Biden's focus on protecting democracy
One of the main ideas discussed in the podcast is the significance of Joe Biden's emphasis on protecting democracy as a foundational contrast to Donald Trump's attempts to undermine it. This narrative is not only true but also resonates with a wide audience. The speaker mentions that this argument has been working well in the country and has the potential to be a powerful campaign message for Biden. By positioning himself as a defender of democracy, Biden can appeal to voters who value the stability and integrity of democratic institutions.
The challenge of voter dissatisfaction with the economy
Another key point highlighted in the podcast is the challenge Biden faces in addressing widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Although polls show that Democrats give Biden high marks on the economy, there is a disconnect between the economic data, which portrays a positive picture, and how people feel about the economy. It is noted that people's satisfaction with their jobs, income, and life overall is relatively high. However, the concern is that if Biden trails behind Trump on the economy and fails to close the gap, it could impact the election outcome. The speaker believes that the campaign needs to focus on effectively conveying the truth about Biden's economic record to make progress in this area.
If you’re a Democrat, how worried should you be right now? It’s strangely hard to answer that question. On the one hand, polls suggest Democrats should be very worried. President Biden looks weaker than he did as a candidate in 2020, and in matchups with Donald Trump, the election looks like a coin flip. On the other hand, Democrats staved off an expected red wave in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden has a strong record to run on, and Trump has a lot more baggage than he did in 2020.
So, in an effort to put all those pieces together, I had two conversations with two people who have polar opposite perspectives — starting with a more optimistic take for Democrats.
Simon Rosenberg is a longtime Democratic political strategist, the author of the newsletter Hopium Chronicles and one of the few people who correctly predicted the Democrats’ strong performance in 2022. He argues that the Democratic Party is in a better position now than it has been for generations. In this conversation, we talk about why he isn’t worried about Biden’s polling numbers, how anti-MAGA sentiments have become a motivating force for many voters, what he thinks about the shifts in working-class support of the Democratic Party, why there’s such a huge gap between Biden’s economic track record and how voters perceive the economy right now, how Biden’s age is affecting the campaign, whether his foreign policy might alienate young voters and more.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
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