Know More. Risk Better. From Boom To Bust: Lessons From The 1920s
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Nov 6, 2025 
Barry Eichengreen, a noted economic historian from UC Berkeley, and Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, explore the relationships between the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and today's economy. They discuss how new technologies like AI could impact productivity, the dangers of fiscal dominance, and the role of political polarization. The speakers also warn about risks in the non-bank financial system, analyze the historical failures of the gold standard, and consider the future of the US dollar amidst global challenges.
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Tech Hype Plus Easy Credit Drives Booms
- The 1920s boom combined ample credit with enthusiasm for new technology, mirroring today's AI-driven surge.
- Barry Eichengreen warns similar dynamics plus recent tightening increase crash risk.
Productivity Gains Often Lag Tech Booms
- Productivity gains from new technologies often appear only after a long lag and reorganization.
- Eichengreen notes significant productivity rose after the 1929 crash, not during the 1920s boom.
Protect Central Bank Independence
- Avoid financing large deficits by printing money because it risks high inflation and political instability.
- Barry Eichengreen urges vigilance about threats to central bank independence.
