
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 342: Rory Johnston on Trump's Bullish Impact on Oil Markets, and the Bearish Risks Ahead
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Jan 23, 2026 Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, dives into the complexities of the oil market. He discusses Trump's paradoxical influence, exploring how policies have shifted OPEC's actions. The conversation highlights China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a significant demand factor and examines the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply dynamics. Rory also analyzes the future of oil production in Venezuela and Iran, and the looming risks that could shape the market outlook through 2026.
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Supply Outpaced Demand Driving The Downturn
- Global oil prices fell because supply grew roughly three times faster than demand last year, creating a surplus.
- OECD inventories rose and pushed broad bearish pressure across the barrel and term structure.
China's SPR Buying Absorbed Surplus
- China built over 100 million barrels in SPR last year, often importing near 1mb/d and materially supporting prices.
- That SPR demand masked real surplus and could continue for years given spare storage capacity.
OPEC+ Rapidly Unwound Cuts
- OPEC+ unwound about 2.9mb/d of production cuts in 2025, releasing a staggering volume into the market.
- That accelerated unwind was a main structural reason for the expected surplus and price decline.







