ICIS - chemical podcasts Episode 1414: Think Tank: Signs of more protectionist approach as global chemicals slide towards a 2028 trough, Europe and Asia fight for survival
Dec 12, 2025
In this episode, James Wilson, an ICIS analyst focused on global chemical market forecasts, Tom Brown, Insight Editor and European chemicals commentator, and Paul Hodges, Chairman of New Normal Consulting, explore the increasing protectionism in Europe as the chemical industry anticipates a significant downturn by 2028. They discuss the urgent need for capacity closures to balance oversupply, particularly in ethylene and propylene, and the implications of China's rapid production growth on global markets. The geopolitical landscape and potential trade barriers emerge as critical factors in shaping the future of the industry.
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Plan For Delayed Shutdown Impact
- Expect many closure announcements but anticipate delays between announcement and actual shutdowns.
- Account for multi-year lead times and decommissioning costs when planning responses to closures.
Europe's Structural Demand Decline
- Europe faces structurally weak olefins demand at 30-year lows, unlikely to recover to prior levels.
- High costs, regulation and shifting net trade have turned Europe into a net polymer importer.
Announcements Will Rise, Recovery Won't
- Closure announcements will continue through 2026 and likely into 2027, but immediate market rebalancing is unlikely.
- Weak demand growth plus persistent additions means recovery will depend on time and significant capacity exits.