Episode 1414: Think Tank: Signs of more protectionist approach as global chemicals slide towards a 2028 trough, Europe and Asia fight for survival

Remarks by French president Emmanuel Macron suggest a tougher approach to protecting Europe as global chemicals move towards a 2028 bottom of cycle. 

-          Ethylene, propylene capacity additions to accelerate, peak in 2027 

-          2028 bottom of the cycle, project delays could push this out to 2029

-          2000-2028 almost 75% of global capacity additions for key building blocks have been in China 

-          Final investment decision (FID)-to-on spec production can be only 2.5 years in China, so risk of further projects adding to the problem 

-          China additions may slow from 2030 due to peak carbon goals

-          Fight for survival for producers in Europe and Asia

-          To balance markets around 24m tonnes of ethylene closures required – equivalent to demand of Europe, Former USSR and Africa 

-          26m tonnes of propylene closures required - equivalent to capacity of Europe, Former USSR and Africa

-          Olefins demand at 30-year low in Europe, to 1990s levels, and will not revive

-          Signs of a more protectionist approach by Europe to save industrial base

-          Producers in China are also suffering from overcapacity, losing money

-          China exported more chemicals than the US or Middle East in Q2 2025

-          Trinseo closure, INEOS Quattro ratings downgrade spell more bad news