Remarks by French president Emmanuel Macron suggest a tougher approach to protecting Europe as global chemicals move towards a 2028 bottom of cycle.
- Ethylene, propylene capacity additions to accelerate, peak in 2027
- 2028 bottom of the cycle, project delays could push this out to 2029
- 2000-2028 almost 75% of global capacity additions for key building blocks have been in China
- Final investment decision (FID)-to-on spec production can be only 2.5 years in China, so risk of further projects adding to the problem
- China additions may slow from 2030 due to peak carbon goals
- Fight for survival for producers in Europe and Asia
- To balance markets around 24m tonnes of ethylene closures required – equivalent to demand of Europe, Former USSR and Africa
- 26m tonnes of propylene closures required - equivalent to capacity of Europe, Former USSR and Africa
- Olefins demand at 30-year low in Europe, to 1990s levels, and will not revive
- Signs of a more protectionist approach by Europe to save industrial base
- Producers in China are also suffering from overcapacity, losing money
- China exported more chemicals than the US or Middle East in Q2 2025
- Trinseo closure, INEOS Quattro ratings downgrade spell more bad news
