Do we need new rules of war as conflict takes on a cyber dimension?
Nov 28, 2024
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Join Professor Johanna Weaver, Director of the Tech Policy Design Centre at the Australian National University, as she dives into the evolving landscape of warfare. With military spending surging globally, traditional rules are challenged by cyber operations. The conversation unveils how drone warfare and AI are reshaping tactics while highlighting the need for updated regulations. Weaver discusses the relevance of international humanitarian law in cyber conflicts and explores the ethical dilemmas posed by AI in military decision-making.
The significant rise in global military spending reflects a strategic shift among NATO countries in response to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine.
The integration of cyber warfare into international military operations necessitates re-evaluating existing laws to ensure accountability for state-directed cyber activities and their consequences.
Deep dives
Escalating Global Military Spending
Recent years have seen a notable increase in global military expenditures, with a recorded amount of approximately $2,443 billion in 2022, which marks a significant rise of 6.8% from the previous year. This increase is particularly pronounced among NATO countries, driven by escalating tensions following Russia's actions in Ukraine since 2014. Countries like Poland have notably ramped up their military budgets, achieving a staggering 75% increase last year, showcasing a serious shift in defense strategies in response to perceived threats. The data indicates that military spending is no longer a contentious issue among NATO allies, with many, including Poland, planning to spend well above the previously established target of 2% of GDP.
The Evolution of Warfare Tactics
The modern battlefield has transformed dramatically, influenced largely by technological advancements such as drones and AI. In current conflicts, soldiers are required to adopt more dispersed fighting tactics due to the proliferation of detection technologies, which make traditional concentration of forces vulnerable. For example, the Ukraine conflict illustrates this shift, where over 510,000 combat troops are engaged in a hybrid warfare environment, necessitating adaptive tactics to counter not only enemy fire but also extensive reconnaissance from drone surveillance. This evolution calls into question longstanding military doctrines, highlighting the necessity for armed forces to adapt to new technologies while leveraging both old and new methods of warfare.
Cyber Warfare and International Law
The intersection of cyber operations and international law has become increasingly critical in modern conflicts, particularly following the 2013 UN consensus on applying traditional wartime laws to cyber activities. Cyber operations have been shown to have significant kinetic effects, evident in attacks on critical infrastructure such as power plants, as exemplified by Russia's actions in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court has recognized the potential for war crimes associated with such cyber operations, emphasizing that state actors are liable for the actions of private hackers they direct. As global conflicts evolve, ensuring accountability for cyber warfare within the framework of international humanitarian law is paramount to uphold standards of conduct in warfare.
Military spending around the world has reached a new peak, and it's still going up. All eyes are on Ukraine and the Middle East as new strategies and weapons are being put to the test. But are the traditional international rules of warfare too focussed on old technologies? Can they be adjusted to encompass cyber hacking and the use of online civilian proxies?
Guests
Professor Johanna Weaver – Director of the Tech Policy design Centre, Australian National University, ANU