Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins Shift Key Classic: The World Will Miss 1.5C. What Comes Next?
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May 28, 2025 
Kate Marvel, an associate research scientist at Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, discusses the critical importance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. She highlights how even slight temperature increases can have devastating effects, explaining the complex dynamics of climate tipping points and feedback loops. The conversation emphasizes the urgent need for significant emissions reductions and addresses the political challenges in climate action. Marvel also offers optimism amidst these concerns, advocating for collective human agency in shaping a sustainable future.
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Every Tenth of a Degree Matters
- Missing the 1.5°C target is not catastrophic by itself because there is no exact temperature cliff. - Every tenth of a degree in warming matters as impacts worsen progressively with temperature increases.
Tipping Points vs Feedback Loops
- Tipping points differ from feedback loops as irreversible changes broken over human timescales. - Feedback loops intensify warming but can be ongoing processes, like ice melt increasing absorption of sunlight.
Methane and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
- Methane clathrate 'bomb' fears are mostly unsupported by evidence but permafrost thaw emits carbon gradually. - Carbon cycle feedbacks affect how much emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere, influencing overall warming.