The Commentary Magazine Podcast The Stirewalt Closing Argument
Oct 31, 2024
Chris Stirewalt, host of The Hill Sunday and seasoned election analyst, shares intriguing insights on polling dynamics and electoral forecasts. He explains poll herding and the biases that can skew public perception. Stirewalt discusses the influence of campaign messaging, particularly regarding transgender issues, and how this resonates with voters. They also tackle the vulnerabilities in the election process and highlight the importance of understanding public opinion as the political landscape evolves.
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Poll Herding
- "Herding" in polling describes the phenomenon where polls converge on similar numbers, despite the inherent randomness of surveys.
- This convergence raises suspicions about the data's reliability, as some level of manipulation may be involved.
Turnout and Poll Manipulation
- Poll data suggests a close election, ultimately depending on voter turnout.
- "Herding" occurs both organically through professional interactions and inorganically when pollsters restart polls with outlier results.
Inaccurate Polling Example
- The Washington Post's 2020 Wisconsin poll, which overestimated Biden's lead by 16 points, exemplifies inaccurate polling.
- While such errors previously discredited pollsters, they now persist due to social media and brand recognition.