Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen discusses the revival of capitalist dynamism, potential obstacles, and the growing gap between material prosperity and human flourishing. They explore the idea of the great stagnation and the potential for accelerated change with advancements in AI. The podcast also touches on topics such as the global fertility collapse and the importance of growth in measuring wealth plus.
The global decline in fertility rates raises concerns about future productivity growth and population dynamics.
A shrinking population can have negative effects on economic growth, productivity, and overall well-being.
AI advancements and artificial wombs offer potential solutions to address the challenges of population decline, but ethical considerations and further research are necessary.
Deep dives
The Concerns of Population Decline and Declining Fertility Rates
Population decline and declining fertility rates are major global concerns. Countries like South Korea are experiencing record low fertility rates, which could have negative implications on their populations and economies. The reasons for the decline in fertility rates are complex, but stress and mental health problems could be contributing factors. The global fertility decline raises questions about future productivity growth and population growth. While AI and technological advancements may help to mitigate some of these concerns, the overall impact on productivity and population remains uncertain.
The Implications of Shrinking Population
The shrinking population has significant implications, both economically and socially. A shrinking population may have negative effects on economic growth and productivity. The level of productivity growth and innovation may be impacted if there are fewer people available to contribute to these areas. Additionally, the declining population raises concerns about the quality of life and well-being of individuals. The challenges of a shrinking population are particularly worrisome for countries that are not able to attract immigrants or that lack effective policies to address the issue.
AI and Artificial Wombs as Potential Solutions
There are potential solutions to address the challenges of population decline, such as AI and artificial wombs. AI advancements can aid in improving productivity and potentially mitigate the effects of a shrinking population. Additionally, the development of artificial wombs could provide a solution to declining birth rates by offering an alternative method for human reproduction. However, the ethical and societal implications of these technologies need to be carefully considered, and there is still much research and development needed before widespread implementation can occur.
The Importance of Economic Growth
Tyler Cowen discusses the significance of economic growth in improving human lives and welfare. He argues that wealthier societies offer better living standards, more opportunities, and advancements in medicine. Despite some negative social trends, such as obesity and mental illness, Cowen believes that a wealthy society is better equipped to address these challenges. He highlights the correlation between high GDP growth and other welfare indicators, suggesting that maximizing economic growth is crucial for overall human well-being.
The Future of Intellectual Endeavors
In discussing the potential for future 'goats' (greatest of all time) in various fields, Cowen identifies areas like cosmology, the unification of quantum mechanics and general relativity, and nanotechnology as potential avenues for groundbreaking discoveries and future 'goats.' However, he expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a future 'goat' in economics, citing the field's specialization and the maturation of foundational principles and techniques. Cowen does acknowledge the potential impact of AI in economics, particularly in simulating economies and providing new insights in the future.
Is the "great stagnation" in innovation and economic growth really over? What new technologies on the horizon are most likely to reviving broader dynamism? Does the global spread of low fertility mean that our escape from stagnation is only temporary?
On this initial episode of the Permanent Problem podcast, economist and polymath Tyler Cowen joins the Niskanen Center's Brink Lindsey for a wide-ranging discussion that traces Cowen's intellectual development, assesses the prospects for a revival of capitalist dynamism and the obstacles that might short-circuit it, and delves into the growing gap between material prosperity and human flourishing.
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