HousingWire Daily How the shutdown could impact housing
16 snips
Oct 2, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing and mortgage markets, joins Sarah Wheeler to discuss the implications of the government shutdown on the housing sector. They dive into the unexpected market reactions, the latest ADP jobs report indicating a softening labor market, and labor data’s influence on Federal Reserve policies. Topics also cover how the shutdown might delay key economic releases and its practical effects on homebuyers, including issues with operational verifications and flood insurance expiry.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
ADP Confirms Labor Market Softening
- ADP's negative print confirms a broader slowing in private-sector job growth that began earlier this year.
- Logan Mohtashami says this trend strengthens the case that labor is softening across manufacturing and residential construction.
Fed Preference Keeps Yields Stable
- Bond yields and mortgage rates reacted modestly because the Fed signaled tolerance for low job growth if inflation remains a concern.
- Logan argues the Fed is 'modestly restricted' and will wait for jobless claims to rise before easing policy.
Watch Jobless Claims Before Betting On Cuts
- Monitor jobless claims as the Fed's key trigger for policy changes and rate expectations.
- Treat single weak reports cautiously because the Fed prioritizes claims over isolated payroll prints.